Wednesday, May 1, 2013

AMZN Update

I have a lot of emails about AMZN and understandably so, Overall I'll say that I still like AMZN for a  bounce, I intend to keep the position open based on what I see now. 

Some emails asked about whether it is wise to cut back the size in to any price strength, I think it's always wise (with a few caveats) to be comfortable with your position size/risk management so you aren't put in a position to make decisions based on emotion (deep seated fear or very impatient greed), but rather you make them based on the merit of the data you have before you.

We can only make decisions with what we know now, this is why I really get upset when I hear members kicking themselves with, "Should of" and I ask, "Did you know XYZ at the time you made the decision?", usually the answer is "No" to which I reply, "Then why are you kicking yourself, you made the best decision you could with what you knew!?!?" The market is one of the most dynamic organisms (YES, a giant, living, breathing, feeling, emotional organism-call it, "The Collective") in the world, cut yourself some slack every now and then. In any case, my answer is I believe position size and risk management go hand in hand and if you are feeling more anxious than what is reasonable, you may not have as high a risk tolerance as your position sizes and there's nothing wrong with that, but you need to adjust your position size to where you are not swayed in to arbitrary decisions by emotion.

Sorry for the rant.

AMZN Charts... *Also remember today is an F_O_M_C day, you never know what knee-jerk reaction you may get...
 AMZN Daily, today it looks like a little run on the stops, day to day it's a big move, but in the range, it's not much of a move at all.

Volume still looks good for the pattern and anticipated trade.

We still have that overall rounding "Process" (not an event) which is good-the bigger the base area, the more the trade can support on the upside, but I do think this will keep a Parabolic shape to it so I don't think an upside move can be far off.

Volume is PERFECT for the pattern.

We look for accumulation in to stop runs or potential head fake moves, we have it here on the 1 min.

 The 2 min chart also has a nice long relative positive.

As does the 3 min chart with a leading positive

The longer term 3 min trend has been accurate in the past, I don't know why this, the strongest signal on the chart wouldn't be reliable as well.

The 5 min remains where it has been in leading position from the start, no damage.

As does the 10 min which has also been very reliable, all of the charts have been.

Here's the intraday stop run, not a lot left on the weak hand side, I wouldn't imagine there would be much need to run any more stops.

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