Opinion & SPY 5/3 $160 Puts P/L

For now I'm not going to say too much on the F_O_M_C policy announcement because as near as I can tell, this sounds like a statement I would make from one of the board meetings I have to attend (went last night-I'm the Secretary and Treasurer) if I wanted everyone to think I went to the meeting, but we really  cancelled it and went out drinking instead.

"Prepared to Increase or Reduce Purchases"

That sounds like subterfuge on its own, but considering the way we have been documenting how the F_E_D has been "Slow Boiling the Frog" in backing out of policy accommodation, I think this is just the next step, they already put the market on notice by even talking about it. Two years ago there would be NO MENTION of anything like this, nothing other than, "We have more tools we can use if need be" "We will do whatever it takes".

Wall St. knows what the F_E_D is saying, Hell the F_E_D is emailing it to them almost two days before it's released to the public!

This is the next natural step is to not create panic, but introduce "uncertainty"- make no mistake, the market WILL panic on uncertainty, that's why we say, "When the missiles fly, it's time to buy", it's not because of war profits, it's because the uncertainty of whether there will be a war or not are now removed!

We here at Wolf on Wall Street know that the probabilities between "Increase" or "Reduce" are about 15% to 85% and that's conservative.

I decided to close the May 3rd puts because expiration is close, even on a knee jerk reactionary move we'd lose profits through time decay, even if the market were lower tomorrow.

I would have put this out if the signals were there earlier, but they weren't there at all in the futures or averages, but developed VERY fast in currencies and I told you as soon as I saw it. I think the rest of the Puts have enough time on them.

At this fill, the position made +42%.

That puts our Options Tracking Portfolio at...

Weekly rank #4 of 714

Monthly rank as it rolls forward, 2 of 311

Here's our last rank for the options tracking portfolio, 57% and 82% , but give the new positions time to work.

I still have a lot to watch in the market.