Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Early Update

Some levers are in play, most specifically HYG, but with very little support, TLT is also in play a bit -both to help the SPY Arbitrage (help the SPY positively), but it doesn't look like they are of much help so far.

 HYG moving up (despite it's longer term severe dislocation from the SPX trend) is helpful for the market, there was a tiny positive divergence late in the day yesterday  sending HYG up a bit, or at least that's all I can find.

TLT had a tiny negative 1 min intraday divergence at 3:45 yesterday, it is below a support line so with the overall positive divergence this can act as a head fake move to propel TLT higher, but for now it being down helps the SPY move up in the SPY Arbitrage, the third asset is VXX, it's pretty stable intraday and positive longer term and further out than I show.


 VXX's 1 min trend is leading positive, but if we zoom in on the intraday signals...

VXX is nearly perfectly in line since yesterday.

 The IWM intraday 1 min thus far is of course clearly negative-leading in fact.

The Q's are the same (I added a little white box and line so you can see where today's open started.)

And the SPY looks the same thus far, this would be interesting if this was to be the first Tuesday of the last 19 that closes red, it seems they are using levers and not getting any traction.

It's too early to get a good read on some of the longer timeframes until they catch up, but what we are seeing early on is the selling of any strength in the averages as we have been seeing for some time in other risk assets.


No comments: