UNG Update

UNG, for those who may be newer, is a position we picked up on long before anyone was talking about natural gas, it wasn't price movement, well not in the typical sense, it was the change in character in the trend that made UNG interesting. We followed it for a while and then got involved, we had the 3C signals, but didn't know the back story until a series of events started unfolding, new regulations that were nat. gas friendly, 18 year lows in Nat gas rigs, and more.

Some of our members have made nearly 50% on the position with no leverage and UNG hasn't even broken out of its base to move to stage 2 mark-up. I view UNG as a long term play, as in a new cyclical bull market for NG, but there will be bumps. I prefer to play it more as an investment, but because the position is oversized, I do trade around it here and there which is mostly for the benefit of members who may want to get involved with UNG, they can see where I like it as a long/add-to and when to be patient.

Here are the current charts and what I'll be looking for next.

 This is the intraday 1 min chart and why I decided to take action on this 2+% gap up today, plus gaps have an odd way of almost always being filled, we use to at least have break-away or exhaustion gaps that would stay open, now almost all are filled since HFT started dominating the market.

The 2 min chart-also intraday is not confirming the gap up, if it was, 3C would be where the orange arrow is.

The same with the 3 min chart after a long series of confirmation signals, today is the first time it has not confirmed-at least not as of yet.

 The bigger picture 5 min chart looks great still so I'm not too concerned for near term trade unless this starts to fall apart.

The 15 min chart shows where we took 25% profits the last time on a head fake move-a breakout from the base on a 5+% day, we took profits, most technical traders would be buying long, but we saw distribution telling us it was a bull trap as you can see the red arrow at the yellow breakout, so we had a nice profit and added back the shares near the recent lows. This chart looks fine thus far.

The 60 min chart also shows the false breakout in yellow, you can see how 3C clearly told us this breakout of 5+% was a trap, then accumulation and where we added the shares back at a cheaper price (keeping the profit from selling high and buying back low). All in all, it looks pretty good, but we always want to keep an eye on it, although its much less work than some other trades.

I'd like to see my X-Over Screen turn positive-those are 10/22 ma's in the price window, a custom indicator in Yellow below with a blue 22 ma on it and RSI 14 below that, all 3 need to give a positive signal. I would currently expect there's a chance for a pullback to the 10-day yellow price moving average, I'll set some alerts and we'll see if we do get a pullback, whether we get the accumulation in to the pullback that we'd like to see.