AAPL

I've been getting a lot of questions about AAPL which I usually cover pretty frequently given the weight it has on the NASDAQ 100 (it was somewhere around 20% or about the same as the bottom 50 weighted NDX stocks all combined, with it being cut nearly in half -well 40%, I doubt that weight holds still, but then again I don't recall the NASDAQ balancing the index since the drop so maybe?), but the truth is, I've stayed away because I've been deeply unimpressed, I still think the most likely scenario is AAPL is in a bear market (a true one) counter trend bounce, these are the strongest rallies in the market even though they are a bear market correction, they have to be for obvious reasons, no one wants to buy a bearish stock unless it really impresses.

I think the countertrend bounce is just about done, whether AAPL is oversold (I doubt as the pendulum swings to both extremes, that will be determined on the underlying trade of the next move down. That being said, I think AAPL is important for any market move on the upside to support the NASDAQ 100.

Interestingly this morning XLK has far better relative performance than AAPL, but there are some interesting things in AAPL too, none are on the 3C side (well there are a few positives here and there, nothing I'd consider an edge), but just a few minutes ago there was some interesting activity.

 The bear market decline-yes, this is a Dow Theory verified bear market, not a media "20%" arbitrary bear market, like the one from late July of 2011 that lost 20%, so we were in a bear market according to the media, then we went sideways for two months and on a head fake break of support as we predicted, the market shot up from there on Oct. 4th and never looked back, so much for the bear market.

In white are counter trend rallies, take a look at the 1929 Dow break and the bear market after, there were at least 5 counter trend rallies, the first was a 6 month/ + 40% retrace, on a historical chart it doesn't look like much, but a 40% move lasting about 6 months would have changed a lot of minds after the Roaring 20's (people are fickle and change their sentiment based on intraday trade or day to day).

 AAPL broke support of a Tweezer bottom at the white arrow just this morning.

Here it is, volume is amped up and all, I personally wouldn't touch AAPL long or short here, if it bounces maybe short, but right here there's little edge.

However it may be interesting to see if that run below the support both near term and a little longer term does anything in AAPL, again, I wouldn't trade it even on a spec basis.