USD/JPY

I was just looking at the USD/JPY to see if the major 4 hour negative divergence was still there, which is the market killer, it hasn't REALLY broken yet, it is and this is why it matters because when it breaks the Yen goes up and the US market trades opposite the Yen.

 This is just one example and not even the best, this is yesterday's trade, the Yen in Green vs the SPY in red, so when the negative divergence on the 4 hour chart breaks the USD/JPY, it also breaks the Nikkei even more, proves Abe and the BOJ's QE is out of control and crashing their market and of course sends the US markets lower.

This is the largest, clearest divergence I've ever seen on a currency pair, usually they are hard to track beyond 1 min.

This is the negative divergence or long term underlying trend of the USD/JPY losing support and ready to roll over in a Yen short Squeeze, we've seen some downdraft in the pair and the market has followed, but it hasn't truly broken trend.

Remember just this week and many times in the past I said, "If you can't tell what's going on with 3C, go out to the longer timeframes, that's where the trend is"?

Well I haven't seen much trend other than the chart above in the USD/JPY so I've been forced to look at the USD and Yen individually to see what the pair may do, no great signals there either, but this morning I noticed this.

This is the 60 min chart of the USD/JPY, it is as close and as clean as you get to a positive divergence, it's on a 4x shorter timeframe so it's a smaller move than the 4 hour chart above, but it is the exact opposite, the message here would be, "The USD/JPY bounces before it breaks down hard and final"

This happens to be my opinion on the market as well and interestingly, the USD/JPY trades exactly the same as the market (the chart of the SPY and Yen above is the opposite of the USD/JPY). Kind of interesting huh?