ES Reclaims a 50% retrace on the Open & Last night's move

Es has so far reclaimed 50% of last night's gain since the open, it's a little early to grab 3C signals, but soon, the next 10 mins or so the opening indications will start coming in.

Until then...

 Unfortunately I don't have a very long bar history on certain assets like ES in TOS, but this is showing how ES didn't start moving up until 8 p.m. last night when After Hours trade closed, this shows from 2 p.m. yesterday to 3 a.m. this morning.

This shows from 9 p.m. last night to 8 a.m. this a.m. at the 10 point overnight high, exactly 30 mins before Initial Claims came out at a mind-numbing print that is as close to consensus as you can possibly be without being outright questioned even by CNBC's Maria, as to whether the BLS was picking numbers out of the thin air as they have in the past so very often.

A good Non-Farm Payrolls print tomorrow scares the QE crowd that the F_E_D will taper sooner than thought, bad for the market which has been my contention since last September, but they also want a controlled burn so a bad print gives them hope QE is here to stay longer, good for the market.

As I recently said, I don't think the F_E_D or Plunge Protection Team (they may be one in the same or at least work together-this is a real group designated by President Reagan) is trying to support the market's rally anymore, I think they are trying to mitigate the downside damage to a dull roar which never works for long.

This is the highly correlated USD/JPY overnight, we can see most of the overnight session, note how it is much wilder than ES and it's trending down (likely because of Japan, ES was trending up- the strongest correlation in the market was broken completely last night.

Finally here's ES as it retraced 50% of the pre-market decline of all of the overnight gains, that's a pretty fast retrace.

I also find this interesting, yesterday the ENTIRE day, ES never ONCE moved above VWAP, it was in the lower standard deviation to VWAP channel all day, overnight it was the complete opposite.


Just before the open there was a channel buster high in ES, this usually sends the asset in the opposite direction just as hard, which it did although I admit  it rarely happens this fat, ES moved to the lower standard deviation channel of VWAP and then the retrace was EXACTLY to VWAP. It seems some institutional people are at work in the market early today.

By the way, if you don't know, VWAP is "Volume Weighted Average Price", it's one of the few indicators we share with Wall St. as market makers who represent a specific stock are paid to fill large institutional orders as they know the stock and how to move it to get the best fill. If the fill comes in on average at VWAP or better, that market maker or specialist will get more business from the institution, if not, then they don't.

You see, these orders are so large, it's better to pay someone who knows the stock, makes a market in the stock every day as they can get a far better fill than the institution just chopping up a 10 million share order in to 1000- 2500 share lots.