Thursday, June 6, 2013

USD/JPY

I'm not sure what caused the flush in USD/JPY, there doesn't seem to be anything from Kuroda, Abe or the BOJ, I've expected the pair to break down for good since the two articles that are linked on the site, "Currency Crisis" which is mainly about the Yen, were written in April.

I think the pair fall apart, the Bank of Japan's QE on steroids is an utter failure and the world's 3rd largest economy goes in to the worst recession it has seen in since the mid 20th century, that takes the US markets with it as well.

However one bridge at a time, today's move was insane and seemingly on no news while the market held up extremely well and institutional risk assets like HY credit either held up well or even advanced!

I never have trusteed Parabolic moves like that, they tend to snap back in similar manner.

While the pair has regained some lost ground, they are in consolidation mode. it does however appear they aren't done with the "snap-back" It's after the snap back that I get really concerned about the pair on the downside and thus the market.

For now...
 The pair after the biggest drop in 3 years, a bit of a consolidation (the market right now is pretty well correlated to the pair although it wasn't on the downside today).

The single currency futures show the Yen at a new leading negative low for the day so I imagine it comes down.

The $USDX is at a new leading positive high for the day so I imagine it pops up, that would mean the USD/JPY continues higher, that would mean it supports the SPX and other averages.

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