Best Guess

And unbelievably, it's not too far off at all from our original expectations 3 weeks ago yesterday.

The SPY Arb is in no way what instigated any of the near term analysis, it was confirmation of what I already thought was happening.

 SPY Arb looks like they are pulling the levers to support the market.

Since the IWM is the cleanest and I believe the most reliable right now...

 Intraday it needs a little time (by the announcement should be fine) to put its  base together, this would explain why AAPL and FSLR look good in this area.

I'm guessing the first knee-jerk reaction to the policy statement is positive, you'll see how this all fits together.

 3 min intraday improving, it's going through the reversal "PROCESS"

 IWM 5 min. So I'm guessing after initial first few mins of volatility, the first wave after the F_O_M_C will be up. If we get just a few more better signals I may consider some longs and some calls before the F_O_M_C.

The 10 min chart shows pretty much what we expected 3 weeks ago, the triangle breaks down, creates a bear trap and rallies past the apex which it has done and then makes an even stronger move from there (after the F_E_D) and that sets up the BULL trap and then down we finally go.

That's my working thesis as things start to clear up, we'll have to be fast, but I think there will be a lot of opportunities over the next week.