Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Market Update...

This is a fast moving market, it will continue or get worse.

I think some of the last two day's optimism will be unwound before the policy statement, it looks to have already started, but we seem to be at a brief pause.

 This is the ES 5 min chart, this looks like it has to unwind some of the upside, CONTEXT is -12 points below ES.

The 1 min IWM

The 5 min IWM, again near term it looks like an unwind is likely.

However, as you see on the SPY 1 min chart, there's some intraday strength to the right, it's small, but still there. The more important chart for direction is the 5 min below.

SPY 5 m. Leading negative.

HYG has a lot to do with this...

There's a move up this a.m. from a 1 min positive divergence from yesterday, but it doesn't go much beyond that.

I think the downside this 5 min chart forecasts will have to be realized, the market typically moves with HYG, actually HYG typically leads the market.

VXX, UVXY and XIV all taken together form a composite picture, there's a tiny bit of intraday strength, it may be a SPY Arbitrage attempt, it's not showing up yet on the SPY Arb. chart, however they are all very clear now in the 5 min space, they suggest the market moves down as do all the charts above.

TLT is still sloppy so it's hard to make much out there.

I will stay patient, but busy looking for signals. For now, I'm holding everything in place, most of you should have profits from yesterday's positions, no one can blame you if you chose to take them before a wild card event like the F_O_M_C and worse after that the Bernie Press Conference which will send volatility soaring yet again today.


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