Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Leading Indicators

Just like yesterday, I will not enter any positions unless they have a solid reason for doing so. I think if you are going to trade today, you need to be by the computer and ready to move.

If you are thinking more in terms of the general trend for the next day, couple of days, perhaps a week, I'd say that looks like it's shaping up to be to the upside, however it's still very new, it's just these other assets providing a hand add more credibility.

Those assets include, VXX which so far has been supportive of market upside, as I said about SPXU, it does look like VXX will make a quick move to the upside, that would help send the market down, but if that happens I expect it either before the F_O_M_C or in the initial chaos.

Yields right now are supportive, they are above price and calling price higher.

High Yield credit is surprisingly resilient for this uncertainty so I count that as supportive.

Commodities are also supportive.

That's what I have for now, I'd personally reduce some leverage and flatten out short term, I'll be looking for new signals that are developing now like the IWM long, I want to see some more strength there before taking a position, it may be after the policy statement, it may be after the press conference, it may be before, I just have to keep watching the charts. Heck, it may turn around and fail, the only thing that tells us now is the charts which are moving fast, they are becoming clearer, but still timing of specific intraday moves is questionable, therefore I'm looking at any potential trades to represent the next decent trend, as I said before and affirm now, after the Knee-Jerk reaction, I suspect that's a continued move higher setting up a bull trap.

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