The One Thing Bernie Gave the Market

This was my question earlier, the answer, some form of certainty in the form of a date. Tapering is to begin this year and will end around mid 2014, since September everything has been based on a very subjective, "Economic realities", which are easily manipulated giving the F_E_D a face saving way to end QE, but today they gave a date for the first time since September 2012. The market hates uncertainty, even more than tapering. If Bernie tells the market when he will do what, you'll have a happy market, even if they don't like what he's doing and in some form, that's what we got today.

I think that is worthy of a rally/bounce. The market didn't end on a good note today, but it ended on an improved note, I'd guess we see some more downside and maybe some basing activity tomorrow, there's even a chance of some improvement tonight as certain Index futures are showing on their 3C charts, but I don't want to get ahead of the signals.

FCT's sentiment improved a little toward the EOD, overall on the day its negative, but the improvement toward the EOD is important, "What have you done for me lately" is the market's theme song.

Yields give the market something to gravitate toward on the upside the way they closed.

Commodities had better intraday relative performance.

Credit closed ugly, but there are some 3C areas in HYG that hold some promise.

The USD/JPY has made some progress, it's over 96, but I suspect it comes down overnight, perhaps by morning it may be ready to start a new cycle, although we are so fresh in to this I don't want to make any pronouncements until more data backs up the start we say today. Today did look like the typical F_O_M_C knee-jerk reaction, they are almost always wrong and reversed within hours to days.

One question I have is whether the huge 15 min positive divegrence I have shown you on the $USD which made good on that divergence today, is actually going to push the USD/JPY and market higher, there's a decent chance of this.

There's that move on the 15 min $USD chart 3C has been forecasting, someone knew something.

I was also surprised by the VIX's lack of movement today...

Taking everything in to consideration, it was almost like protection was being unwound today, you'd expect the VIX to be quite a bit higher.

Also, overall, HYG which can move the market up if it moves up, stayed remarkably strong today on the 30 and even 60 min charts.

Make no mistake, I do believe Bernie gave the market a bone here with an actual date for smart money could make plans and not guess in the dark, that's what they hate, that's what they'll sell every time.

The positions entered today were entered on their own merit so I would say my feeling that this is a knee-jerk reaction that will reverse is based on more than just gut feeling or market behavior dynamics.

Lastly, apparently other risk assets are preparing for a market move higher, look at CONTEXT which we saw earlier in the week go from a negative 16 or so points to an exact reversal or reversion to the mean, tonight...

We have a 45.6 point positive differential in the ES model, note the time it switched over as well. That would put ES around $1655 and 3C divergences on the positive side are creeping back in to the Index futures, perhaps we have a faster surprise than originally thought.

On a personal note I have an 8:15 a.m. doctor's appointment, I'm usually back before the open, but just to let you know.

Have a great night and get ready for a lot of action and excitement with plenty of opportunities.