Unfortunately the market moves so fast that I am working with incomplete data many times because I have to respond to things as they develop.
For example in the SPY, we have 30 minutes or so until the close so a closing ramp or perhaps a pullback to a larger base or something else entirely?
From some of the Bellwether stocks like AAPL and GOOG, this looks like a move, however long it lasts, that should stick, but we are right at the point in which traders' emotions are now being tested, shorts are wondering whether they should cover, longs are wondering if they should have bought the dip, this is kind of the equilibrium of a see-saw emotionally speaking.
SPY 3 min in good shape...
SPY 1 min intraday threatening a consolidation or even a pullback.
SPY 15 min has stayed strong and therefore "could" as I said last night, pull the market up in more of a "V" shape rather than the usual "U" shape, this reversal thus far is much closer to a "V" shape than a "U". If it weren't for the SPY 15 min chart I'd completely rule out a reversal this fast and expect a larger base to form, but we simply don't know at this point.
The Q's are another example of a lot of positive work being done in the averages for the kind of move we are expecting. I don't expect the Q's to have a leading positive 15 min divergence because there's simply too much damage and smart money isn't going to put that kind of money in to the Q's at this stage of the game.
The 1 min intraday IWM's bigger picture is a leading positive divergence, but we can't ignore the intraday negative , although it is much weaker right now, this is where all new divergences start.
At the same time, the DIA intraday has no such problem at all.
So I'm not trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill, just trying to show you what is happening so in follow up posts you know where we are in the timeline.
I have no plans to change any positions at this time.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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