Quick Wrap

First I'm going to show you the depth of the move today, I think we can safely say that this post from Friday was correct and the evidence shown last night just added to the case.

I want to show you the depth across various assets today, but I don't want you to feel that this is anything like past bounces, this is like dancing with the devil or walking on the edge of a cliff. I'm not saying these trades from today are for everyone, in fact I wouldn't blame any one for sitting on the sidelines, but there are those nimble enough that these trades can work, there are those positioned so that even if they don't, it's not anymore than a ding as the main positions will gain. Most of all though, if I didn't point them out, we wouldn't be learning about the market at one of the most crucial times where we have the most to learn, a time that only comes around for a few days or weeks every 5 or so years.

This is a sampling of the assets that were moving today, in many cases I don't see any way they can be where they are (3C) unless Friday was entirely retail and smart money was still in the same place as Thursday as I said last night, otherwise some of these divergences simply could not be leading this much.

 SPY 3 min


 QQQ 5 min-this is a perfect example of what I just said.

XLF/Financials 2 min at a new lelading positive high.

AMZN

GOOG

AAPL

IBM

NFLX with that head fake move that alerted me today...

 NFLX, the exact same chart as above zoomed in, note the run of the stops and volume pop as they were accumulated and NFLX took off from there, this is one of the concepts we talk about and use often.

 Our MCP long calls saw the initial a.m. retail selling I expected, then a nice range and big positive div.

And how did they do this without putting any or too much extra money on the table? They worked the arbitrage assets and let the algos bid the market.

HYG moving up is what is needed.

TLT is interesting because the move down is what is needed, but even as it did, there were still those eager to buy protection on the dip.

VXX moving down is what was needed.

But not all stocks did as well, some were sold aggressively on any chance in to strength, take Goldman Sachs for example...

 As soon as it gained some upside, sellers came in, that's going to be a good short.

This is the Yen/SPX (red) correlation, they usually move nearly opposite each other, today which was more aggressive? The SPY.

And here's dancing with the devil, we can't forget about where we really are, a triangle top, a probable head fake move coming and a huge leading negative SPY divergence on a 2 hour chart, that's insanely negative and we are separated from that by charts positive in the 2-3 min, some 5 min and that's about it so when they run dry, it gets real ugly.

Just look at the volatility, this is making it almost impossible for traders without an edge to do anything in this market without getting whipsawed left and right, to the right, the moves are more volatile, more compressed and this is exactly what I said would happen as we near the end of the road.


I'll bring you some more as I get it, but it's been a pretty amazing couple of days that just go to show that there's no one indicator, no one asset or asset class that can tell you how to trade the market, you have to look at everything and the things that drive the market change all the time. It's a job, but if it were simple, everyone would make money in which case no one would make money in a zero sum game.