TLT P/L

With the crummy and very long fill times, I wanted to see if I could even get these filled while it was still worth it so I put out 5 contracts of the 25 just to see if they'd get filled, then followed up with the other 20 as you see below, all 25 were filled at $3.40 which is an +11.5% gain or $875 which isn't much, but recall these are August calls, they are way out there and they were for a reason, because I think there's something very interesting going on.

Last week's powerful signals in early timeframes that caused me to open the position were clearly tied to "Balanced Portfolios" needing to buy a lot of treasuries before the end of the month to maintain their mandated balance, surely you've seen them before at some job offering some 401k type program where there's a pie chart and you have "safe", "moderate", "Aggressive" and a pie chart showing the percentage of stock holdings vs treasuries and other assets.

With Treasuries getting hammered as they have the last month or so, these fund managers had to buy treasuries and we saw that Friday, May 31st (the last day of the month for them to do so).

After taking that in to consideration plus what I saw in TLT intraday below...

 And seeing the same in VXX with HYG positive, I knew what the SPY Arbitrage model would look like before I even looked at it.

The intermediate 15 min TLT chart still looks good so I'll likely look for a lower area to start that longer term position again.

 As suspected, the SPY Arb. chart is positive over +$.50 because of those 3 assets, in other words, SPY upside levers are being pulled.

The long term 1-day TLT chart shows a very interesting process, the head fake move was made today so I think TLT is probably going to be opened again within a few days which means the market may not be looking very good within a short period.

However first, I think the most likely course is to teach all the buy the dippers (who are bearish right now simply because price moved down 1-day, they have no idea what credit, treasuries, currencies, etc all look like which are much worse than they can imagine)  that they shouldn't question tradition, they should have bought the dip, so if this move gets off the ground, which I thought it would last Friday, last night and I do right now,  I expect it to be emotional.