AMZN Charts

I might be a little too myopic at times about entries and exits especially when we are looking at big picture positions, but I think AMZN looks really interesting, but with it's current position, I want to be as sure as I can be as far as timing, as far as the position itself and the big picture, I still like it a lot.

I'll try to give a run down from macro to micro, there are some really interesting aspects to AMZN, it has built some incredibly strong bases and just some other things that just show patience pays and the big picture is really where it's at whereas I think sometimes we get too caught up in day to day or hour to hour trade.

 This is the range and the reason I wanted to see AMZN > $287, each timeframe has to be looked at within that timeframes perspective, here on a daily or multi-day chart, this is the obvious range and movement is created as well as opportunities at the obvious areas. It seemed like waiting forever for AMZN > $282.50, but it was worth it. Note also it's not $282.50 or $287, otherwise you could just set a limit order, it's ">" greater than and the reason for that is the range needs to be broken and it needs to be convincing, that's the only way you get sentiment shifts and traders to take action. It's that action retail is taking that Wall St. uses against them or you might say for their own purposes, it's darn hard to fill an order the size they are looking to fill at with a great entry (short in this case) and enough liquidity or volume to fill an order the size they are trading, the best and easiest way to do that is to create these head fakes, whether false breakouts for short positions or sells Wall St. wants to fill or shakeouts/stop runs for longs of BTC positions.

This is one of my custom indicators, it is DeMark inspired, we still haven't named it, but these are sell signals in orange, also note the Bollinger Bands pretty much giving away that move >$287 as the start to squeeze implying a directional move and with a range like that as clear, where do you think that directional move is headed?

 This is a multi-day (3) chart that shows a lot of history, look at the size of that rounding bottom/base  from mid 2000 through 2003, that's years, then there's another strong base from 2004-2007, again years, but very strong divergences so very active accumulation, the last major accumulation area was 2009 at the market lows when just about everything went positive around Q1. Since then at "D" 3C has been in line with the trend, not calling out any major disruptions to it, but at "E" we see the distribution process showing up on a 3-day chart which means it's pretty significant.

Again with institutional orders the size these guys are trading, they aren't closing positions in a day or a week, often it's a process of months and distribution can even hit years just as the accumulation was years.

 The 60 min chart is what I've been watching as far as >$282.50 and now, it's in the right direction, the break out from the range is almost vertical so it's convincing.

At the 1 min chart you can see the same type of cycle (Accumulation, confirmation, distribution) as you saw on the multi-year chart, even intraday we see these same cycles, there's actually 4 stages, most of you know them, but now's not the time to cover them.

A closer look at the 1 min chart shows a pretty strong distribution area at the yellow box and just preceding, there's a move just above the intraday range (we see them on every timeframe) preceding the move to the downside.

What I want to see here is the 1 min chart dig down deep in a leading negative position from here, I want the chart to scream it's ready and if that happened with price moving above the intraday highs on this chart, I'd be fine with that because distribution is either in to higher prices or flat prices, very rarely is it in to downward prices unless someone got caught with their pants down.

 The 2 min chart also shows how strong the distribution at the yellow area was if you follow 3C to that point, it's still negative, but I want to see this chart also lead deeply.

 To the left on this 5 min chart there's point "A" and "B", there's a small relative negative divergence between them that sends price lateral until a positive divergence appears and sends it higher.

What I want to see here is simple, I want to see 3C move to a lower area, a lower low, if it just moves up and is just in a relative negative divergence like the one to the left, then it's not ready.

I think this will all happen soon, how soon is the question and that is what the entry will depend on.

This 10 min chart had a nice leading positive divergence, but it's only so big ands it's on a 10 min chart, not a 60 min so it is about where I'd expect these negative divergences to start getting a lot worse.

There's one other thing I'm thinking of and that's psychological, $300 is only about 3% away, these centennial numbers are like magnets, I'd say the overall market will have a lot to do with whether or not that becomes a factor, but it's something that has to be considered being it's so close.

Right now I'm going to wait on AMZN, but I'm not walking away from it at all, I'm just keeping an eye on it and waiting for it to give a screaming signal that jumps off the chart.