Positions / Precious Metals

I'll start with the PM's, I closed out the NUGT position today for a decent little gain for a position opened Friday, but I'm not really all that hot on the miners this moment, they look like they have some work to do.

GLD I think is going to have some real potential, likely a bear market counter trend rally which are (of course) some of the strongest rallies in any market. There's no doubt gold is in a bear market, we actually called the end of Gold's run at the end of 2011 and start of 2012 and said gold would move to either an Intermediate or a Primary bear market, it's a primary bear market.

This break of the $130 area was major and opened up a lot of supply, I don't doubt gold could run for 4 to 6 months and possibly to the $150-ish level, I just know it's not going to do it without a larger base, it's getting real gappy and GLD 3C charts as well as Gold futures don't show me anything near term any more, I do think it's a fantastic one to be on the watchlist and try to pick up some on head fake moves below support ($114.60's area), I think it will produce some great option trades as well while putting a base together.

Silver looks a lot better to me right now, but I'd like to get out of it (open call position), I almost feel like I may have already overstayed my welcome with options. If I was long SLV or AGQ I might feel differently and that's likely what I'll look at with some higher leverage trades when appropriate.

 This short term intraday chart is the only reason I keep this position open right now, plus the fact it's expiration is out to August, but I think there's some tough resistance coming up.

This 15 min 3C chart shows a pretty nasty negative divergence on the 3rd of all days, I'm thinking that gap is about all this leg is going to make before returning to build a stronger base. I kind of like the idea of AGQ long or maybe SLW for a longer term position.

 The  60 min, 2 and 4 hour charts all look like this 30 min so I have little doubt this is going to be a big mover, but it does need more base and it too is getting a bit gappy, I think a pullback in SLV is literally a gift.

My Trend Channel has held this entire move down without a single stop-out, so the fact the trend channel's stop is currently just above $19 and moving down every day as well as that distribution area at roughly the same level tells me this isn't the time to "see what happens". So I'll be looking to wrap this one up.