Market Update

So far, this is exactly (at least the IWM is EXACTLY) what I was expecting and hoping to see, that triangle was so very obvious as a lot of technical traders won't enter without confirmation and a breakout of a consolidation/continuation triangle is confirmation, especially after a new breakout high, they don't have a problem with chasing though.

In any case, The SPY and QQQ signals are good, but it was really the IWM everyone is watching and the signals there are pretty great so I'll be looking around a bit, I'm obviously leaving VXX calls open.

 SPY 3 min, no confirmation which is what we want to see on a move like this when we are looking for a false breakout, the reason we are looking for a false breakout is because of what we know about market behavior, but mostly what we see in numerous other charts, credit not being the least of them.

 SPY 5 min

QQQ 1 min, I would think the Q's would try to break that resistance area (white) as  an intraday head fake move, but I'm not going to wait on that.

Especially when the QQQ 3 min looks like this.

This is where the attention was focussed, the IWM is what changed sentiment, the best head fake was set up there, pretty much any time you see a triangle (consolidation size), you can pretty much bet it's artificial and there for a reason like I said yesterday, Technicians are still playing by the same rules they were playing by nearly 100 years ago with price patterns, I think Wall St. figured it out by now.

 IWM 1 min with ZERO upside confirmation this morning.

IWM 2 min divergence should be clear, especially on a triangle breakout at a new high.

The 3 min chart as it was really only the intraday charts that were feeding any kind of strength (meaning it wasn't a lot of support).

And to clean things up and make the trends very clear, you have confirmation of a trend and then a large negative divergence or distribution ion to the breakout move.

I'm not throwing any parties yet, it's still early in the day, but with the chart above in this position, it's pretty darn likely that we found what I said we'd be looking for last night.