Tuesday, July 9, 2013

AMZN Update

I just want to point this out because I like AMZN as a core short position (longer term / trending trade).

I waited for some time for AMZN >$282.50, I don't know if you recall the second target, here's the last update for AMZN on July 2nd 

" I would entertain adding to AMZN above $287, but I'd have to have a more significant price concession and continued negative signals to add to the position from here."

Above $282.50 was the first target to start or add to AMZN and > $287.00 was the second target for a phased-in position, this is not "Dollar Cost Averaging" as dollar cost averaging is an attempt to lower your cost in a losing position, essentially throwing good money after bad. Phasing in to a position is a plan that is part of your risk management before you ever take on the first share.

June 13th I was looking for roughly the same levels so even at the >$282.50 level I had to wait a while for it to get yup there...

"As a short which I'd like to add to (equity only), I'm looking for prices >$282.50-$285."

This was actually during the middle of an AMZN call trade that did well.

In any case, as I go through my watchlist, AMZN popped up at the level I've been looking for. 

I'll prepare some charts and get them out next, but I wanted to get this out to you so you can take a look with your own tools and see if the idea fits your style. Again this is an equity short, not leveraged with options, it's meant to be a longer term position and as such I like giving these some extra room on the stop even if that means taking on fewer shares, I'd rather give the position a chance to work through all of the transitional volatility, but one of the key reasons our core shorts have done well for us in the past is we have been very patient with them and waited for areas that are likely seeing distribution.

Charts are coming up next and I'll probably make a decision on adding the final bit of AMZN today, although I suspect a reversal process would likely be complete around tomorrow for the market in general, we do have Bernie speaking at 4:!5 tomorrow, granted it's a speech on the "History of F_E_D policy" so it's not likely to contain anything too significant, but this is pretty much the market's main focus right now.

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