What's Coming and What's coming

OK, I didn't post this earlier today for 1 reason, when people see a differential like this they get excited and trigger happy. You may have notices, I only opened 1 position today, that was IYT and it's at a decent gain already. Otherwise I just did some spring cleaning, took some losses on some July calls that I think we're probably at just about as good a place as I can expect for them considering the time decay.

It's not I feel things went different than described in the SPY example of expectations for the market, in fact I think that the example provided thus far has been very accurate, in many cases it's not even a matter of positioning, it's a matter of timing.

I figure since several of you have already sent it to me today, I might as well post it now.

So here it is... The CONTEXT model for ES (S&P-500 futures).
 

I have been watching this grow the last 2-days and now it's around a -30 point differential. CONTEXT has been extremely accurate in the past, I posted in Sunday night and said I didn't trust it and thought that they would tweak the model in the morning and they did, I believe about 2 a.m. Monday morning.

The model is based on other risk assets, it's no where near as simple as the SPY Arbitrage based on 3 assets.

So do I trust it now? Yes and that's not just self-serving, it's because I see the assets like credit are lower, I see VIX futures are higher than they should be, Treasury's etc.

So as of now, it has ES $30 rich to the implied value judging by other risk assets so in a way, that's what we have coming and I say that because twice we have seen CONTEXT around the $30-$40 level (differential ) and price moved within a couple of points of the model, it was pretty amazing.

As far as what's coming from me, I'm going to update several positions that are currently open, a brief market review and then the trade ideas.