I just looked at Leading Indicators and my gut feel is that we do get a ramp in to the close or are set for an early Monday ramp, however, it looks like a fluff move, more so than even a head fake. Sentiment indicators are negative like the trend from 2/6 to present is not only in the reversal process, but at the cliff, however a very short term move in 1 of the sentiment indicators since 1 p.m. today toward the positive hints at that upside move that was all part of yesterday's "Scenario" post. The larger view of both is that they are leading the market to the downside.
VXX (Short term VIX futures) have had very strong outperformance today, we already know this is a larger position, I suspect that there will be no rotation out of protection and in to risk because it looks like the move would be so short they wouldn't be able to replace the assets rotated out in time.
TLT or the Flight to Safety trade (20+ year Treasuries) is MASSIVELY outperforming it's market correlation, apparently there's a lot more bid for safety than you can see without putting it up vs its correlation.
Yields which are on of my favorite leading indicators are in line intraday, but from the 2/6 to present move in the market, they are SEVERELY dislocated and leading the market to the downside, much, much larger than the fall on 1/23 to 2/3 that created so much bearishness among the retail crowd. I'll show you after the close.
INDEX FUTURES ARE NEGATIVE FROM 5 MIN TO 60 MIN WITH HUGE DIVERGENCES BETWEEN 5 AND 30 MIN.
All I can say is I hope the market can hold in the area or move up a little on Monday, there are a number of core short positions or option trades I want to enter immediately, PCLN and NFLX are among them
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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