Market Update

The USD/JPY is getting pretty negative intraday, but beyond intraday I'm going to try to show you where we are in terms of a few timeframes/trends and overall in relation to the strong upside move that was born of the head fake/bear trap , "From failed moves come strong reversals".

 USD/JPY 1 min intraday going leading negative to the right

SPY 1 min intraday, mostly in line

SPY 5 min intraday, has been in line since yesterday so seeing this go negative on an intraday basis is a good signal for timing.

30 min which is the trend that ran up just the last several weeks, you can see how close we are to resistance and this is what I was talking about yesterday in my "Scenario" post, it's so close and so easy to hit orders and make some extra money before you turn the market, it's like free change on the ground and I think that's a good analogy because it's not going to make them a lot, but it would be like change on the ground, but free.

The overall trend has deteriorated exceptionally bad considering I thought this chart might be able to hold up with a downside reversal all the way to SPX 200 day m.a. This is kind of what I was talking about with not taking a long in AAPL, these are the strongest probabilities, even though we can have short term moves above resistance, this is where the probabilities are and I don't want to bet against those without an amazing reason as we are at a trend pivot which is obvious just by the increased volatility, you don't even need the 3C chart to see that.

QQQ has not been acting well, this is the 1 min intraday, my theme was "Sell in to price strength", what I try to do is follow in the footsteps of those who move the market, it seems to be more than apparent that this is exactly what they are doing. A short here is in line with the highest probabilities and it's in line with the highest short term probabilities for the Q's

 The 3 min chart is leading negative ever since the divergence on the 18th, the green arrow just shows 3C moving in line, not positive, but this in line is within a leading negative divegrence so it's not a strong signal by any means.

 And the larger trend from distribution that turned in to a range that was the start of accumulation for the move up at the start of February, the head fake move that set the bear trap and short squeeze and the price move. This is the same chart I thought might hold together positive even with a move down to SPX's 200-day, it has fallen apart much faster than I anticipated, which changes the outlook for what happens at the 200-day, we'll see as we start moving that way, but I DOUBT WE ARE IN THE AREA AGAIN AND THIS IS WHY I HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT AND ENTERING SOME CORE SHORT POSITIONS.

IWM 2 MIN INTRADAY had enough accumulation from yesterday to create this move, but as you can see it too is failing like the Q's.

The 3 min chart shows migration meaning the failing divergence or negative is growing in strength since yesterday's expectations from the a.m. post.

And again the highest probabilities and the reason I want to enter core shorts in this area, note the leading negative from the far left start of the arrow and where price was to the far right current position of 3C/arrow and where price is, that's a lot of overall distribution which is exactly what we thought this upside run would be used for and this is documented as our view BEFORE anyone had a hint the market would move higher, everyone was still bearish. You see the range area where accumulation for the head fake started, the head fake/bear trap and distribution in to the run.

Again, this is about aligning expectations and trades with timeframes and probabilities.