Thursday, July 14, 2011

FAS Request

And just to show how far we are behind the information curve (and being far behind can mean 1 hour), the source of our current pop in the market comes courtesy of a rumor that a debt ceiling deal has been reach to cut $1.5 trillion (as it's a rumor, I add Doctor Evil's snarky laugh for emphasis after the $1.5 trillion) in deficit cuts. Funny how the short term 3C went positive just before the rumor popped.... (sarcasm added for emphasis as we all know the game).

In any case, a rising tide lifts all boats, right? So lets take a look at FAS of Financials. Remember yesterday I showed you sector rotation showing Financials likely to outperform the S&P and thus far they are, by a small margin.

 Here's XLF 1 min 3C note the positive divergence into the day's lows and a current leading positive.

 Here again we see it on the 5 min chart

 And the 10 min chart posts a spectacular relative and leading positive divergence into new lows.

 The 15 min chart does the same with the strongest divergence coming in right before the rumor was put out for public consumption (so far a non-verified rumor as well).

 And even here on a 30 min chart, the divergence s strongest at the day's lows and new lows on the chart! That's 5 time frames all confirming!


As you can see the more important longer 60 min timeframe isn't budging so bounce? Probably. New uptrend? Doubtful, but financials do appear to be moving in to rotation which means they should outperform the S&P on a relative basis (don't forget, that can mean they fall less then the S&P in a decline).

As for playing FAS long,  would consider it to be, in the words of one Ben "helicopter" Bernanke, "transient"

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