Thursday, July 14, 2011

VXX Update

And this is why I'd be trailing that intraday stop...
The consolidation is bullish and way too obvious, the black box systems were likely to game it. Note the RSI divergence on the breakout. Now whether they pull a Crazy Ivan and shake the tree both ways or they just go for a directional move, it's difficult to say without eyes on the underlying action, thus the trailing stop.

This is a small example of a bullish continuation pattern called an ascending triangle. Technical traders are going to buy the breakout, n fact they are usually going to buy the pattern even before the breakout because it has a bullish bias. WALL STREET KNOWS THIS IS HOW TECHNICAL TRADERS WLL RESPOND, thus the black box systems which are insanely sophisticated, are gong to game the pattern.

Like most of you know, my cousin is the tech guy on a private investors own little black box system. They're only an independent trading firm trading this guy's capital, not a hedge fund or anything like that, but have spent millions installing network hubs to reduce their latency by milliseconds if not micro seconds. You can get free pattern recognition software out there so you can imagine what the HFTs on Wall Street are running and it's mostly about volume and taking advantage of the predictability of technical traders, they resort to this because for most firms, it's just too expensive to get low enough latency to front run and too many firms are specializing in it, so the pattern recognition plays have been big on Wall Street lately.

Anyway, keep an eye on VXX, it can certainly move up more from here, but the game must be played.

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