Monday, January 28, 2013

Crude seemingly not concerned with protests in Egypt

Recent protests have broken out again in Tahir square, more broadly Cairo, Suez and a few other large Egyptian cities. While the initial catalyst may have been the 21 death sentences handed out for a deadly riot at a soccer stadium, it seems the tone has turned decidedly more anti-Morsi as he continues to consolidate powers that have many comparing the first democratically elected leader in Egypt 
 (typically the military is the real power behind who is elected, but that ended with Mubarak) to a Pharaoh. 

Morsi may have added more fuel to that fire by imposing 9 pm to 6 am curfews on several of Egypt's largest cities in response to the demonstrations and clashes with law enforcement. However for the time being, it seems oil is more concerned with arbitrage calculations than a "People vs the Government", Arab Spring part 2 so far.

As you saw in the last post, the EUR/USD was moving up, meaning the $USD was moving down, although now starting to recover. Crude looked like it was much more interested in following that relationship as you can see in Crude futures...

Crude futures follow the EUR/USD in pre-market...

However as the market opened the $USD gained some strength to move to the green by +0.05% and eC did not confirm the gap up in USO in early trade, which has seen USO lose about 1/3 of its gains since the open , now at +0.40%.

Perhaps more interesting for the moment is the fact the protests have not raised alarm that Morsi is in any real trouble or peril of facing Mubarak's fate.


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