Monday, January 28, 2013

Sector Rotational Trades?

Friday was showing accumulation in Tech, I'll deal with AAPL separately and today Tech outperformed Financials and Energy and still is (only one of the 3 that is still in the green). The question is whether there's rotation to another sector or even if Tech is gaining back some of the strength it started losing early on as it, again, was only meant to be a short term trade.

Also the results of this look at the sectors should be considered in broader market analysis.

I'll do the same for the averages in a subsequent post.

Financials
 There's not much to see in the 1 min chart that you can't see in the 2 min chart, a head fake move to the upside is immediately sold and there's no actionable signal here for a long trade.

 At 5 min we see the worsening damage done last week-if I scale the trend out even further you can see this is nothing new, just the magnitude is definitely increasing, thus my comments about damage on important charts done last week.

 Here's a long term view on an important 15 min chart since the accumulation that started the new cycle from the November 16 lows, yo can see the rate f 3C deterioration here, to the far right this is the most recent and strongest. I don't see a long trade here, I may even look at some of the short Energy trades as I didn't like them much early last week, but started to like them more and you can se why, late last week.

Financials
 This 2 min chart is the only slightly bullish chart in the near term, it may just be an anomaly as it isn't there on the 1 or 3 min chart on either side of this 2 min.

 XLF 3 min- as I said, no similar signs.

 XLF 15 min with an increased amount or rate of deterioration last week, again I'll probably look closer at the possibility of short trades here, new or add-to positions.

Finally Tech...
Since the divergence didn't really go out too much beyond this timeframe (thus the short duration trade),  this bit of deterioration doesn't inspire much confidence to hold Tech as a sector, long.

The overall tone here is bad too.

I'll see if there are any signs of individual averages looking as if they may rotate as we saw the last week or two with some sharp calls, but very quick moves. You take what you can get from the market, you can't get more than it offers obviously.

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