Monday, January 28, 2013

Market Update

Unfortunately I have to give you updates in bits and pieces because the market and signals are moving so fast.

There are a lot of charts I'd like to show you as they continue to confirm the earlier charts I put up about a change in character between 3C and price behavior that looks like the market is losing traction, I thought about this and the only real reason I can come up with is that the distribution of any intraday price strength is still there as normal, but the slippage we seem to be seeing in price momentum and ability to hold (I described it as climbing up a sand dune as the sands are slipping from under you), would seem to me to be a more overt distribution in which supply is actually larger and more visible, I can't confirm this without watching a 3C tick chart all day which I can't do, but if that is in fact the case, it smacks of institutional fear and more desperation to unload, caring less about the best prices and caring less about being detected by dumb money, although I'd think they wouldn't want to be detected by predatory HFTs.

As of my last look (and things change really fast), the only average showing some intraday strength is the DIA.

 1 min DIA leading positive.

On the other end, the 10 min with a worsening leading negative.

The Q's have a small intraday relative divergence, it's only on the 1 min chart so not very strong right now. The SPY has the same, the IWM is actually in worse shape.

NQ -NASDAQ futures have nothing approaching anything positive, nor does ES.

Tech doesn't have anything near positive intraday and you already saw the longer charts that were positive (which were few) already slipping badly.



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