Leading Indicators

It's during intraday price downdrafts like this that we're most likely to see any rotation in sectors or market averages so I'll be looking for that although I haven't seen it as of yet today, even Tech hasn't rebounded at last look (REMEMBER-it was always a short duration trade-I even thought maybe intraday on Friday).

As for leading indicators, there's some signals, nothing that is switching on a big lightbulb, what is curious though is CONTEXT, it has a radical shift from last week in ES, I see they redesigned their website so I don't know if they restarted the model because I don't recall seeing any transition from last week's -14 reading in the differential between ES and the model (negative), now it is more positive at +6-8, again, maybe this has something to do with the re-design of their website or perhaps they restart the indicator from the new trading week in futures rather than let it run as a cumulative indicator, or perhaps they have a cumulative indicator and the delayed intraday is the only version they show for free without a subscription.

 High Yield Corp. Credit doesn't really look very good in the area, it seems to be leading price as credit is supposed to do, but there's also an unknown in the noon time flat zone.

 Junk doesn't look at bad, but is leading more overtly than HY Corp. above.

 High Yield was divergent with the SPX to the negative and now slightly to the positive.

 Commodities are more or less in line intraday with the SPX.

 However the trend has been clearly negatively divergent, which isn't a good sign for the market trend when a risk k asset group like commodities is totally disconnected.

What makes it worse is the $USD correlation.



 Commodities in orange vs the $USD in green should move the opposite of each other. To the far left commods fail to rally even with a weakened $USD, in the middle they have the correct correlation (white) then on the way up the Dollar suggests commoods should be falling, this is the only positive area for commodity trade, recently the fall in the $USD should send commods higher,it doesn't which seems to indicate a risk off attitude toward commodities. Interestingly for those that are following any sort of QE/POMO line of thought, commodities were some of the best performers during past QE and POMO operations.


 The Euro and SPX intraday are trading close to lock step.

CONTEXT

Late last week the model was much lower than ES futures themselves with a differential of -14 which is huge, now the model is more bullish than ES at +6 to +8.

All in all, there are some signs there, especially longer term and basic sentiment, but nothing earth shattering.