Monday, January 28, 2013

Position Updates

I'll be covering position updates and either getting them out as 1 post as long as there's time and no action needs to be taken before they are all finished or if there's need of quick movement, then they'll be split up.

As far as what looks interesting as of today, Financials have seen a lot of downdraft, FAS looks horrible as it is negative (leading) from 1 min to 60 minutes and every timeframe in between, this would suggest  short XLF position or a long FAZ position, it really does look that bad and I'll likely cover these individually with chart as I look at entering or adding to them during the day.

Energy as a group has also fell apart, recently I wasn't sold quite at the time, but it's grown a lot worse. I like ERY long here which is a 3x leveraged short on Energy, but I feel like it could use just a little more of a "U" shape in price and it's very close to that point, perhaps tomorrow it will be there as this has been one a lot of members have been asking about. My reply today was that as far as price goes, it's probably in a very acceptable area, as far as timing goes, it may have a little more time and time is money and risk so I prefer to be as close as possible on timing, there's no way I'd even consider being long energy in this shape.

Tech on the short side looks to me right now, as if it's not quite done, but it was just in rotation today so it may look different tomorrow. As long as AAPL has some gas in it, Tech is one I'd hold off on going in with both feet.

I do think AAPL has some more upside from here, mostly on a 5 min chart at this time, there's not much after that of immediate interest to me. That 5 min are is also where the Q's have "A" positive divergence, there's not much more in the tank there than drafting AAPL it would seem.

The SPY saw increased downside momentum in the 3C negative divergences today, remember though as I said there were some charts like TBT that were positive to about 2 minutes, not a very large divergence, but one nonetheless. The SPY does not look positive in the same area, but it has a bland congestion look so it may just draft whatever leads or just remain bland as it was today. It is extremely close to backing up the truck, I'd have my foot on the pedals, just not quite release the break yet, but again, this may all change very fast with momentum in 3C shifting so quickly.

The DIA is virtually in the exact same position as the SPY, my concern with taking positions right now is much less about getting a better price entry and much more about timing, whenever you are in the market you have risk so you want to have the best timing possible to spend the least amount of down time or even congestive time, we want to be in at the move, although I do want to have a substantial part of my position already in place as the market is getting more and more fragile, you can never tell when something might come out overnight and snap it and I don't want to be left empty-handed in a scenario like that.

Finally the IWM, I'm going to guess this is the average that sees leadership tomorrow and I mean that on a relative basis, I wouldn't say Tech was very strong today, but on a relative basis it was far stronger than the other sectors and averages. I'm guessing the IWM sees rotation tomorrow, but the quality of the signal is so poor, consider we entered Tech based on I believe 1 and 2 min positives, very few and small signals, I wouldn't take the IW trade based on today's signals, meaning they are even less moving than Friday's weak signals, it's just something to be aware of.

So we'll watch AAPL tomorrow as far as the Calls go and the Tech trade , whatever is left of that. I'll be looking especially close at Financials for opportunities on the short side followed by Energy, as in the sector, not specifically oil.

We'll also take a look at precious metals tomorrow and perhaps miners.

Since I can't get all the charts up and you'd probably not have time to look at so many, let me just show you FAS, the 3x long Financials, this is why I like the 3x bear financials as a long and just looking for the exact timing which as you'll see, is very near if not here. Most of these charts have no drawings on them because the momentum in the divergences is that obvious it doesn't need to be pointed out.

 Recent FAS 1 min chart downside momentum is off the scale.

 2 min chart since trend 1 started

 The FAS 5 min chart, note recent downside momentum is huge.

 1o min, I just wanted to point out the action on this chart in a single day

 Fas 15 min from the pop up start of trend #1, a big increase in downside momentum on the negative divergence and on an important timeframe.


30 min chart, again, I'm trying to point out the 1 day move for such a long term chart, rarely do we see this much movement on long timeframes in a single day.


As of right now, Futures are pretty flat.




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