The last few days remember I have been saying the market has been opaque, I thought it was because it was pre-F_O_M_C jitters, it seems now it was more about the market/FX correlation.
I want to be quick, because I'll be adding to risk assets including those started yesterday, maybe GLD long, probably VXX short.
I think there will still be a process, but faster than usual.
Look at the CONTEXT/ES dislocation, this could be a huge move.
CONTEXT is positive suggesting a 50+ point ES move to the upside.
HYG-Credit which leads the market is positive 1 min
HYG 2 min
HYG 10 min
ES 1 min
NQ 5 min
TF 1 min...
The Index futures are becoming more and more positive after falling hard at the European open around 3 a.m.
SPY 1 min is building positive and migrating out showing a stronger positive divergence developing or accumulation of these discounted prices.
SPY 2 min
SPY 3 min, so there is a process of migration through the timeframes which is good.
IWM 1 min
IWM 2 min
IWM 5 min never even moves down to confirm the move this morning.
So I'll be looking at assets as add to positions and maybe some new ones, I would say if you don't have any, I would love to be entering new positions at this area, but even the ones from yesterday should see sharp gains with the charts improving and the CONTEXT 50+ point differential, which is probably one of the largest we have ever seen.
It looks more and more like yesterday and overnight were indeed the typical F_O_M_C knee-jerk reaction that is typically reversed, in fact almost always. The first move tends to be the wrong one.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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