Thursday, June 20, 2013

Quick Market Update

I thought I'd just get this out before I switch templates and check leading indicators. This is really what I was hoping to see, this gives us a little more of the reversal "process" rather than an event, the difference is just the difference between a bottom reversal area being "U" shaped or "V" shaped.

The market (and I mean smart money) don't have 100 lot positions like most of us do to some degree or another, this means for them to do what I've been doing this afternoon (adding to positions), they need more time, if they floated a 20k share order in a stock that trades 200k average a day, that would send the predatory HFTs and everyone else front running that order (that's hyperbole, most positions they enter are not going to be such thin volume, but the point is the same) so they need to break it up in to more manageable pieces that won't send price against them (like a bad fill for you or I) and they are typically trying to fill near VWAP so the bottom line is reversals that have some support are going to be more of a process, reversals that are much less common and "V" shaped are usually parabolic, impressive at first and then fall like a rock or just flame out.

So now we have more or an intraday "V" or by the time it's done, it should have a larger "U" shape.

This would also be the place to look for a head fake move below intraday support, with 3C leading positive like this it's almost certain any stop run would be accumulated and a good entry that is a good price and lower risk as well as higher probabilities.

So keep an eye on assets you are interested in, if there's a stop run you want to see some volume just below support showing they were hit and likely accumulated and then you have a nice entry area.

You can also watch the intraday NYSE TICK chart (1 min) and compare the trend (with trendlines drawn showing the channel) to the SPX, if TICK looks shallower, more positive than the SPX at a head fake move, you also have a good idea that it's a run on stops and probably a very good entry.

After I check Leading indicators and make one quick market sweep again, I'll try to get to some emails and by then we should be ready to look at any remaining assets that may be decent trades as I'll go through the entire watchlist.

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