Wednesday, August 28, 2013

FSLR Update

First remember how quickly we went from the first half of the day yesterday being positive in 1 min charts and strongly, but only 1 min charts, to suddenly and quickly moving to longer timeframes.

Second, the price pattern is about the right size proportionally for a normal "in character" reversal as part of the reversal process. In other words, while I don't yet have that strong feeling I should be taking positions quickly, the extra hour or two I wished we had at the close yesterday is right now so things should be solidifying.

 You may recall the bullish ascending triangle that traders would expect to break out to the upside and my thoughts that it would be a head fake move, it was in the form of a "Failed breakout". Failed breakouts lead to fast reversals.

Now the SPY's rounding bottom has taken on a nice form and at least half way done as a rounding bottom, there was a stop run at the high volume, but typically there would be 1 final one just before a reversal to the upside begins. We still have charts that need to fill in, this is why I wanted the extra time yesterday.

FSLR
 3 min relative and then leading positive as is often the case

FSLR 5 min going leading positive at an area that would be considered a head fake stop run.

And the overall 30 min chart which I liked so much still in great shape, the yellow line being the head fake stop run. I would add to FSLR if the charts all started lining up and the overall market environment was constructive as it has been moving in that direction.

Volatility or VIX futures represented by VXX and UVXY are seeing strong, early distribution that confirms market strengthening, UVXY 1 min

UVXY 3 min, the positive to the left was where we went long VXX calls for a quick 1-day or less double digit return, it's now moving toward the negative.

I'll let you know if I decide to add to FSLR calls or perhaps some other way of playing FSLR.


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