I've been bearish on Gold miners, specifically GDX, I haven't included Junior miners in my analysis, there's no particular reason, I just haven't.
I have a Sept GDX Put open, I had wished I had gone with the 3x short gold miners ETF, DUST because I see this as a longer trending position than an option can catch, eventually I did open that equity position which is doing great so far.
The short story is I think GDX short/DUST long look excellent, there may be some more whiplash chop, but they have solid position-type trade signals.
Here's a look, remember we want to see 3C negative divergences for GDX and positive divergences for DUST as GDX is long and DUST is a short/bear 3x leveraged ETF.
This is GDX 1 min intraday, it saw a small positive on the open and is pretty much in line, slightly negative, I suspect it will range around for a bit.
The 5 min with a clear negative at yesterday's gap up and in line status now so there's nothing on the chart that I see to interfere with the next "Highest probability" chart.
The 60 min GDX shows a cycle from stage 4 to 1, then 2 and now 3, the next stage is 4 (Decline) from this huge leading negative divergence, but this is in shorter timeframes as well, it's not some far off in the future divergence.
DUST with its strong positive divergence on a -8% gap down yesterday to close up +13% yesterday, that's nothing compared to what this can do.
Again the 5 min chart is largely in line confirming GDX, but...
The 15 min chart with a huge leading positive divergence and an appropriate size base hint at a move well in to the mid 30's very conservatively speaking, I wouldn't be surprised if it hit the $50's
I'll be very patient with this one if need be, maybe trade around it, but if it comes down to a reasonable area with a good set up, I'd consider a trade here is you haven't already.
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