Market Update

I want to be careful here not to get in to a position of long exposure on what may be the top of a "W" base, in which case, longs would experience drawdown while the overall base would pullback and create a stronger base. Or worse, a flash rally with no legs, but I don't think that's a high probability right now.

The other possibilities are getting the market toward a Friday op-ex pin higher, although doubtful in my view OR this has to do with Syria Strike timing. Yesterday when a strike seemed it could happen at any moment the market was jittery, now today it seems it has been put off a couple of days, perhaps the weekend.

If they do it on the weekend and all goes well (remember it was said to be a 2-day strike), then it would have little effect on the market as uncertainty had been removed (short term).

There are a lot of great looking charts including credit/HYG in many surprising timeframes, VIX futures as well.

I'll try to give you a feel, I'm still a little hot about that XOM "FAIL", but I think the position has a lot more upside, it would have been a nice +35% 1 day move for something I probably could have added back at a lower entry.

 DIA 3 min like a lot of charts, shows what I expected yesterday, "Give the market a few more hours and the divergences will start to become more solid.  Just look at how much was added today already on many of the charts below.


The 3 min DIA chart has a slight negative, it makes me wonder if we will get a pullback with yesterday being the first part of the "W" base and later today/tomorrow being the second part. It's hard to say because there was accumulation while prices fell while Kerry spoke yesterday, otherwise the market would have more of a rounded look right now.

 DIA 5 min added a lot today thus far as expected yesterday, but still looks like 3C is a bit high for prices moving up.

The 10 min chart shows good migration and I think this is a serious divergence that will likely take us higher in to that bounce that was interrupted. Retail sentiment is blowing with the wind, whichever way price is going, they are following so they could be set up for a nice bear trap short term.

 IWM 5 min looks respectable and a lot added today

Even the 10 min, this is when we know things are getting more serious.

QQQ 5 min

QQQ 10 min looks great, a pullback and higher leading positive would be fantastic, like money on the ground.

SPY 1 min, to me this is too much , too high in to higher prices, I think there has to be a pullback at some point.

This is the 5 min ES chart and it looks pretty good

The 5 min VIX futures shown last night show the positive in which we made a 1-day double digit gain, now imagine the gain on the size of this negative and the market moves opposite VIX futures.

Right now the 1 min VIX futures isn't really telling us much, I'm still watching for signs of a pullback.