Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Wednesday Morning

Good morning, it's hump-day.

Overnight the Indian Rupee collapsed to a new near record low and the biggest 1-day drop in 20+ years, this is attributed to the "uncertainty" around the Syrian situation, but the Rupee has not been in a healthy trend for some time.

The signs we were seeing yesterday of the $USD seeing some strength and the JPY seeing weakness, possibly creating a market engine via USD/JPY have taken some shape.
 The USD/JPY 5 min chart sees an upside reversal on overnight $USD strength/JPY weakness.

The 1 min $USD overnight which may be getting a bit tired, the JPY still looks weak for now, apparently either caused oil to move lower as the $USD moved higher or the war premium is being put off as it seems the US won't present proof of Syrian culpability until at least Thursday, perhaps taking some of the instant "surprise attack" off the table.

Crude moves down overnight - 1 min

ES seems to have formed a bit of a base as I was hoping to see continue.

 ES 5 min "W" base

The ES 15 min chart shows a trend developing, still needs more work, but there's a clear positive at that "W".

Gold futures gained a bit overnight, perhaps on the Rupee news as India is a huge buyer of gold, but now seem to be giving most of that back.

The exact same is true of Silver, but it's giving it back faster.
There's a reason I picked a Silver put over gold yesterday.

Any way with Soc.Gen. forecasting $125-$150 oil on a Syrian strike, I'm thinking the administration may wait until the weekend, they said something like a 2-day strike, it may be started and over with by Monday morning to do the least disruption to the market.

As far as today, same as yesterday, collect the data and see if the divergences harden up, if they do, there are a lot of great looking plays out there for short term , leveraged or options trades and even equity positions.

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