I'm going to be VERY busy during the Q&E to see what assets act in what way when the Q&A comes.
Last night I brought up a VERY broad subject and a VERY simple Concept or answer. Banks' unrealized gains in Assets "AFS" Available For Sale, largely Treasuries, were at a loss because of the recent beating bonds have taken, "My simple (not comprehensive, but just food for thought) easy way to fix the bond problem (a much larger market than the stock market and much more important for the financial system) was to cause a flight to safety trade, let the stock market dive and you'll see bond prices rise and yields drop in a hurry.
What I find interesting this morning, although this is no where near conclusive, but perhaps some micro/macro model, is that treasuries /TLT look like they'll pullback or they don't like the current state of affairs with monetary policy.
However at the same time... theVIX Futures (VXX) this morning are seeing an improvement in 3C while TLT looks to see at least near term weakness building in. HYG is being used it appears to pump the market on SPY arbitrage, combined with a drop in TLT would do the trick.
OK, to the Q&A.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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