GOOG Update

As I look around, it feels like we have a little more time, but not a lot, it seems like there's an event that they're  waiting for, VIX expires today, Bernie has another talk in front of the Senate tomorrow, but I keep coming back to the IWM triangle, I have a feeling it will be significant in timing which if you recall this started off after yesterday's early downside, while the market was still nasty we saw the first hints of a small bounce, at the end of the day yesterday we saw the first hints of some weakness coming in to that bounce and today we have a small bounce. I still think the IWM is key intraday.

As you know GOOG is a long term Core short position, meaning I like this as a long term position (trending). As fas as timing, would I enter a Put option in GOOG right now? No, but it is above the area we were first looking for it to move above as a prerequisite before exploring it as a short new position or add to. In my/our experience, typically these head fake moves go a lot further than you'd otherwise thing is reasonable or necessary.

I suppose if I was using excellent risk management, this would probably be a pretty nice area to start building of continuing to build a phased in position (typically in 3 parts) this is not the same as dollar cost averaging which is throwing more money in to a losing trade, this is the same way Wall St. enters and exits and the main difference is that the risk management for such an entry is worked out before you enter 1 share of the position, that means position sizing, wide stops and you are looking to be able to add at a better level if you can get it, if not, then you can add on the move down on a retrace.

Or the position would be pretty decent so long as you have good risk management, allow initial positions especially like this a wide stop which means fewer shares and make sure the stop is not at any obvious place including whole numbers.

 These are the exact same trendline I drew in on the last update, the areas I would consider looking at a GOOG short because they were bound to be hit. We can talk about these small double tops and how they perform differently from the TA textbook later, usually there's a bit more of a head fake move (yellow arrow), but it was enough to knock out all closing and intraday highs and thus long breakout limit orders.

 The 60 min momentum chart can be constructed using these or your own favorite indicators, the thing is you have the best chance when as many timeframes as possible are confirming and use longer settings, don't use the industry standards. I have RSI 6 on this (I know, but RSI doesn't respond well to longer settings), Stoch period 5o and MACD Histogram periods 26/52/9 I find you can double that when using faster intraday charts.

**Just now the IWM hit one of my breakout target alerts.

 This is the daily Money Stream, further back it looks even worse, but I'm most concerned with this small double top-ish area, it is negative there and big picture VERY negative compared to pre-2013.

 Daily 3C says the same thing, the current area is where I'm most interested, long term distribution in a stock as big as GOOG is not uncommon, but now that it's leading negative, it's more significant.

 30 min is a serious timeframe, the last run on this "Double top" (I know it's not a true double top) shows 3C showing heavy distribution in to the move which is EXACTLY what we want to see 

The 15 min chart easily confirms the same. 

From the fastest intraday timeframes now, 1 min shows yesterday's overall start of the market bounce we saw signs of and called VERY early , today it has been in decent shape, it seems there's some deterioration now. I suspect an IWM breakout would see all of the assets and averages see heavy distribution signals in these charts as they follow the IWM.

The 3 min chart is the last timeframe with any sign of yesterday's accumulation for a bounce, I should note the size and amount of time for accumulation would be so small, there's little upside the accumulation move could support.

And the 5 min is all clear, no positive activity hit there at all so that links us up to the longer term charts. In my view it's just a matter of timing for the best entry with the lowest risk.

*Bonus chart...
This is the 3C trend Version where all details and noise are taken out so we can just get a look at the pure underlying trend.

There are a couple of accumulation areas, mostly though we are in line until a move above the 3 year range resistance, then we see a trend of distributing in to higher prices, GOOG is a huge stock, these would be huge positions and can take 6-9 months for 1 firm to liquidate without being attacked by predatory HFTs Pinging for icebergs.

The leading negative or overall trend is what is really important for GOOG as a LONG TERM POSITION.