Market Update

The market seems to be progressing along the lines laid out yesterday as initial indications, we aren't that far along yet that I'd call this a solid signal, but so many things are happening so fast I want to have you up to date as possible.

I don't know the Congressman's name, he's from Alabama and asked the exact question we were pondering last night, the reduced treasury issuance, how much of that the F_E_D soaks up and in his question's context, "whether that gave the F_O_M_C more wiggle room", but it's apparent the banking lobby has made their fears, worries and losses known in their bond holdings, unrealized gains or in this case, losses.

I don't want to read too much in to these very short term charts, but if this was a more macro signal on some of these questions,. then I'd say last night's start of discourse on the subject was not only very timely, the answer may have been right on.

 DIA 2 min is getting worse so this is the start of migration of a negative divergence, the start.... 

 DIA 3 min seems to be seeing migration to the next longest timeframe at 3 mins, we'll need some more confirmation, but it seems to be headed that way which would mean the divergence would be picking up steam.

Even the QQQ 1min now has the start of a small intraday leading negative divergence where there wasn't anything here before.

 The 2 min chart seems to be seeing migration as well.

SPY 1 min you can see for yourself the leading negative position, it's by no means huge, but these are the subtle signals we have to watch for to get an edge.

HYG as an arbitrage (market positive asset) is seeing a little negative action starting, at a 1 min chart alone there's a strong chance it's just consolidation, but if it migrates to 2 min, then it starts to look like a pullback, if it keeps going, then a reversal of yesterday's "intraday bounce" positive divergence which so far we are seeing in price today as 3C suggested yesterday.

 TLT intraday charts don't look great, this 3 min chart shows some of that action, near term they look like they are coming down, I'm leaving the half regular size equity TLT long in place, I think something longer term is going on here.

 Longer term TLT 30 min chart looking very strong for a big picture move.

VXX or VIX Futures as mentioned seeing intraday improvement today, 2 min

3 min and we'll keep an eye on it.

This is VERY early, but it almost feels like the NY F_E_D trading desk is watching Treasuries reaction to what Ben is saying and "PERHAPS" engaging in a strategy along the lines of what I suggested to be the "No brainer " answer.


Due to the speed of events, how many things I have to watch right now and listen to, emails will be last priority and probably slow reaction.

If you have something very important or something you want to share that is important, please put some hint of the ,message in the subject line. Thanks.