Wednesday, July 17, 2013

One More Market Update

I know some of you have positions of your own you are looking at and trying to get a feel for the market as it has the most gravitational pull on any stock on any day (as a general rule of course).

I'm going to flip layouts to the Leading Indicators to double check so before I do I want to get this update to you.

The IWM intraday has been the strongest of the averages, INTRADAY. There's a small intraday triangle in the IWM as well, retail would take that as a bullish consolidation/continuation pattern which makes it a perfect head fake set up to turn the intraday "bounce" trend that I first mentioned around 10:45 a.m. yesterday as a likely path near term.

 Others like the SPY have really bad 1 min charts that remind me of the days market makers use to load up before a big move, I suppose HFT has made that less relevant. There's nothing of interest on SPY charts in 2, 3, min range, they are in line or slightly deteriorated, the 15 is clearly broken and on we go from there.
 I'll use the Q's as a broad example. Right now I know we are all itching for a nice move, but patience and waiting for the fat pitch is key, when you see it you know. "IF" the IWM breaks out of that triangle intraday, I'll try to check it ASAP, but that would likely be a great head fake entry for shorts. I always want to confirm so get out your fave indicators as well.

 QQQ intraday 1 min looks really bad, this started 3:30 yesterday and we weren't sure, I think it's safe to say this is not a consolidation signal, but distribution.

 QQQ 2 has a small divergence, but this is what I mean by there's not a real strong set of charts in the 2,3 and some 5 min areas.

QQQ 3 min is perfectly in line intraday, perfect example of migration from 1-3, but the process is very slow, however the sharpness of the 1 min charts is interesting.

 At 5 min we had signs of yesterday's move and today's destruction of it, but of course the larger 5 min signal of leading negative  is what is important to the market trend.

IWM 1 min leading

IWM 2 min slightly leading.

The 5 min quite negative and this is generally the first institutional timeframe, but note the triangle in yellow intraday today, very small, but these moves are usually proportional.

 IWM 15 is clearly negative, this is a chart 3 years ago I'd short right now every time, since our timing has gotten better, but to give you a feel for the environment.

 IWM 60 clears the deck.

The SPY 1 min backed out a bit

And SPY 15 looks quite ready

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