Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Not so Fast...

Price action gets the heart pumping especially after a nice dull session, but I see a few things that looks like this is not the end of the intraday bounce started yesterday, it may change before the close, but I'm seeing it in positions I like and want to open and the arbitrage assets.

I'll take a further look, I'm going to try to give you an abbreviated version, just remember HYG (High Yield Credit ) leads the market and typically they use it for intraday upside manipulation, VXX/UVXY  trade the opposite of the market as VIX futures. TLT is the same as VXX, but I'm not getting too much in to that.

The only other thing is XIV which trades with the market and is the exact opposite VXX, however as even the VIX futures are all different ETFs the signals in 3C wouldn't match if there wasn't something there.

Specifically I'm thinking the IWM may pull a Crazy Ivan intraday around this little triangle.

 UVXY (2x leveraged VXX) 1 min has been showing (like VXX) accumulation today after yesterday's slight distribution, remember these trade opposite the market so the signals actually confirm with the market averages.

I have a VXX CALL Option position ready to go just as soon as I feel the timing is right on.


 This is a 2 min chart of XIV, it is the mirror opposite of VXX/UVXY and moves with the market, it is seeing the accumulation as the market did yesterday for an intraday bounce and distribution today, it's just not leading really negative yet and that's what I'd prefer to see for short term or option positions.
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VXX 3 min is showing strong accumulation today, leading positive in to this move, in fact it almost seems as if it's being helped down a bit to be accumulated at the best prices.

 Here's where it is strange, 5 min XIV is almost in line, the exact same is true of VXX and UVXY, although they are starting to go positive there.

Longer term or as far as which way this is going, I have no problem being long VXX or even UVXY right here and now, it's more option timing that I'm concerned about.

XIV longer term knows it's over too, remember this trades with the market correlation.


HYG intraday 1 min is perfectly in line

2 min the same

only at 5 min does it show some weakness and that's because the accumulation yesterday wasn't strong enough to hold the 5 min together.

However the 15 min HYG chart also knows this market is toast here, still it's the very short term timing.

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