INTC Earnings and 3C Chart Follow Up

Earlier today I was asked to look at INTC to see if there was a possible leak before earnings. The last I saw INTC was trading down -3.31% after earnings

We did a test here at Wolf probably over a year ago (or more), but the point was I had seen in the past leaked economic reports as 3C made clear and leaked earnings so I wanted to prove it to members. I can't remember the exact number but I believe it was ultimately 22 stocks that were picked based on abnormal 3C charts before earnings (GOOG was found or rather didn't give a signal until 15 minutes before earnings) and the charts and direction the stocks would trade in were posted before earnings came out.

3C would have no way of knowing whether earnings were a beat or a miss because even with a beat, if guidance is weak, the stock will sell off. We were just looking at the pre-positioned players that obviously knew what the reaction to earnings was going to be and most likely by leak. Out of the 22 stocks that were selected, 19 were correct, it was just about a 90% win percentage. 

This isn't as easy as, "Hey, XYZ is reporting tonight, which way do we play it?". In fact, I looked at hundreds of stocks to select those 22, but when you saw them you knew something was not right with them.

 I always say, "With 3C it's not whether you can decipher the most probable outcome, it's when those signals jump off the chart without trying to read the Tea Leaves in which we find our greatest edge".

INTC had some pretty strange charts that did not look good going in to earnings, however they weren't to the degree that we've seen before and the short term signals didn't fit with the longer term signals and I hate positions in which all of the signals don't move in the same direction for the highest probabilities unless they are like that AAPL +50% 2 hour trade.

In any case, Intel missed on revenues, but worse than missing,  INTC Cut Guidance. The market isn't about what you have done, it's about perceptions moving forward, INTC is probably in some deep trouble moving forward and we'll keep in on the watchlist for a high probability/low risk entry.

I'm showing you the 4 timeframes that showed clear distribution, it was strong, it was fast and recent (the last 2 days).

 INTC 1 min chart, you know how I say accumulation and distribution are most often found in flat ranges? And how about, "80% of reversals are preceded by a head fake move" which is in yellow as INTC briefly looked like it was breaking out of the range. 

If you want to understand why head fake moves are so important for timing and what their purpose is, how we use them for better entries and exits, then check out the two links, "Understanding the Head-Fake Move" linked on the member's site.

 The 3 min chart shows a VERY clear leading negative 3C divergence, at the same area as well and the head fake is evident.

This is a longer trend of INTC from distribution to accumulation which was likely just there so they could lift INTC to sell in to before earnings.

That's a very strong leading negative divergence on that timeframe, but nothing compared to this...

INTC 15 min 3C chart, we rarely see divergences this sharp, this fast, that's massive distribution.

Now you know how level the playing field is, but at least we have some tools that rely on an uneven playing field.

I'm going to a dinner engagement and I'll see what's happening with the futures when I return. There are plenty of good positions setting up or in place now.