Market / Treasuries

It's really hard to listen to these questions, go to the asset they are talking about and back to market indicators to see how the market reacts and then capture charts and upload them, get the posts out, it's a fast moving market for me.

What I found interesting was this big swing in the CONTEXT ES model vs ES.

 This big swing in the ES (SPX Futures) model showing ES to be about 20-25 points over-valued interested me as it was very sudden and I wondered which asset class it was coming from, while there have been some currency moves, the AUD/JPY would be the obvious one as well as the $USD, but I don't see either having the right look or enough of it, but what I did find was this...

Treasury futures, the 10 and 30 year.

 Pre-Bernie's statement or opening remarks being released at 8:30 a.m. which is unusual, there was a large intraday 1 min positive divergence in 10 year UST futures, it started around 3 a.m. EDT and ran right to 8 a.m. just before the statement was released, the move up in treasuries (not yields), would be taken by the model as a risk off move or flight to safety and that may explain the sudden hump in the ES CONTEXT model.

The same thing happened in the 30 year treasuries (futures).

I'm seeing SPY arbitrage assets that almost seem like they are trying to balance each other, similar to the market performance today, when TLT drops, HYG sees intraday distribution, (together TLT dropping and HYG moving up would be risk positive for the SPY), but in this case they seem to be offsetting each other, perhaps the invisible hand is at work as there was some earlier talk from a Congressman about Bernie's comments causing crazy volatility in the market, perhaps they want to show that he can talk and not have the market go nuts, the NY F_E_D trading desk would handle those operations.

In the meantime (after all that speculation that's so fun, but I REALLY HATE- so don't read too much in to it), what I am seeing is some continued deterioration in the market averages, specifically, the DIA, SPY and the QQQ has worsened, the IWM is holding pretty close to in line.

If there is some manipulation/invisible hand action, I'm going to flip over to individual assets (stocks) and see if there's a feel there.

All in all, this seems like a normal transition from the initial signals late yesterday that started peaking up.

I may post some of the worsening charts rather than them all.

Oh, and so far the short term intraday as well as some intermediate TLT charts look like Treasuries are set to come down a bit, I will keep the TLT long open, maybe even add if the environment is right because I think there's been something going on there and obviously the bank assets at unrealized losses can't be allowed to stand, thinking further out than a week.