Friday, June 7, 2013

IBM As an Example

I wouldn't encourage a trade in IBM either way right now, but this is what the entire risk asset market looks like so it's a fair example to delineate between an intraday pullback and trying to day trade that, vs the short squeeze bear trap of this entire week.

 IBM's 2 min intraday shows a negative divergence today, but put in to scale, you can see it is nothing compared to the positive, I do believe it is enough to pull IBM/the market back which does what we need and collects more shorts, but it also shows how an IBM pullback would be a market gift to add or start new positions to ride the bear trap.

The 3 min chart shows an even smaller intraday negative and larger positive trend, even the time or reversal process to the downside is not big enough to be any serious threat.

Then the IBM 15 min chart, this is the main mid term trend, not long term because eIBM is a core short, but this is the bear trap positive divergence and why I'd want to add to positions/Calls on a pullback, this is the highest probability for the pattern of the last 1+ week and then it's on to building and filling out shorts.

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