Friday, June 7, 2013

So Far, So Good

The actual NFP beat at 175k vs consensus of 165k, if it's good news than its bad news for the market, so why did futures spring to life after the choppiest lateral overnight session I've ever seen?

It was the internals or it was the market just making sure it moved in the direction it had pre-ordained.

Here is where the internals got ugly or at least not good: The April number was revised from 165K to 149K, the Unemployment rate was 7.6% higher than expected @ 7.5%.  The number of unemployed workers increased from 11659K to 11760K, the highest since February.  Average Hourly Earnings missed expectations of a 0.2% increase (up from 0.2% last month), instead staying flat at the April number and there was an -8,000 drop in Mfg jobs in May.

Oh and as for the Nikkei, a market just about the same size as the Dow in points, experienced nearly a 600 point swing overnight and closed in the red, but just barely so all in all, it was much better than it has been recently although volatility isn't going away.

As for charts.

 ES choppy overnight trade, but then the range looks tiny after the NFP...

ES presently makes the range look small.

The USD/JPY was volatile all night, almost unchanged since yesterday's 4 pm close.

We'll stay on our toes of course, but you know what my expectations are going forward in the near future, that doesn't mean it will happen in a straight line, the market will always look to shake every one off. If you think about the last week, the shorts only had 1 decent day they could hold with out some kind of shakeout.



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