Other Indications

Things really moved fast after the 2 p.m. hour (after most op-ex contracts are closed).

As I said this morning and often, a reversal is the start of something, it's not a straight line up. The market's job is to make money in an environment in which they produce nothing, it's a zero sum game for 1 entity to make money another has to lose it so the market is always trying to make the most people at any 1 point in time wrong.

First I mentioned earlier locking in bears over the weekend, the longer bear and shorts can be held in a short squeeze, the more powerful it is, the other issue is when you are putting psychological pressure on  a trader, you want to keep it on. The point is to induce a fear driven or greed driven panic, shorts right now are correct in the long run, it's just making it to the long run and the false moves and fear are what knocks them out of trades.

Here's what I have so far.

 From a short's perspective and I can tell you this from experience when these patterns use to work well  over a dozen years ago, this looks like a perfect spot to go short again. The zone i which they fear is the apex of the triangle, but we are right under that so in essence this is EXACTLY the same as the failed test of resistance that brought all the shorts in on Tuesday, this is the same set up, their short position has gone no where, it hasn't gained anything, but they see this as a chance to get back in if they were stopped out yesterday afternoon or add to if they are stronger hands.

This is the $USDX, combined with the yen below...

It looks like the USD/JPY is going to pullback which also pulls the market back, it may just be fear over the weekend of how Japan will open and some pre-emptive positioning or it may be a real move.

This is the 1 min ES chart, however...

There has been no damage at all to the 5 min ES chart suggesting that whatever pullback may be gathering its place, it hasn't been strong enough to effect the next timeframe at 5 min in Es.

The leading sentiment indicator FCT, which is much different than the retail twitter sentiment, has held up well, it is seemingly not afraid of any significant risk.

 This so far is good news, I'd expect them to try to take HYG down if there's going to be a pullback as part of the SPY arbitrage, the truth is, as long as Institutional money stands aside until the pullback is at a level they want to accumulate, they don't need the HYG arb, retail can do the work.

Even more encouraging is the fact that the very thin High Yield Credit isn't leading a run to the downside, this would be an asset smart money would use for a risk on(bounce/rally) move and because of the thin liquidity, it is often the first to break off and lead lower, it hasn't done that which suggests smart money knows what's going on and they are staying put.

That's what I see and my take thus far, we'll see at the close.