Friday, June 7, 2013

The AAPL Call Position P/L and Charts

Yesterday at 1:11 p.m. I opened AAPL Calls, Now I'll Take Some AAPL- June $435 Calls-Nice Discount

Today I closed those on good momentum and the hope and probability that I can replace the position at better price levels.

Here's the P/L and below are the charts.



At the $17 fill today, the P/L came out to +18.9% for about a day's exposure.

I like AAPL for a longer term move, here's an example of why...
 This 10 min leading positive chart is very appealing for a long /call position, you can see where it closed yesterday at the hash mark and how much it added today.

Earlier today it was just migrating over to the 30 min chart, by the close it had added a significant amount for 1-day on such a long timeframe so I like AAPL for a long trade, but what I was seeing earlier made me believe AAPL was likely to pullback, in which case we can take profits on the momentum move up today and re-establish a new position that has the same if not better probabilities at a lower price and essentially make the money again.

Once the momentum fades, there's not a lot of reason to stay with the position, yes you can absolutely wait for higher prices, but I've had the most success with options by taking what is given and getting out at the first sign of a pullback or loss of momentum. You can usually re-establish the position at lower prices and lock in the profit on the first position.

This is what I saw that made me suspect a pullback in AAPL which at the time was very similar to the  market averages and a number of stocks that moved higher today.

First you can see why I chose to open a position yesterday as 3C went very positive, however you can see a  negative relative divergence today on a 2 min chart, when it's on a 1 min chart it is a 50/50 shot of being either an intraday consolidation like today during the afternoon or a price pullback, when the 2 min (above) is also showing a negative, the probabilities lean much stronger toward a pullback in price so taking the profit for a day of exposure and possibly opening a new position at better prices was appealing.

If I don't get a chance Monday to open a new position that's fine. This was never meant to be a long term position and taking a gain of nearly y19% for a day is nothing to sneeze at.

I will say during the last hour or so of the day, the averages and many stocks started looking a lot better and less likely to pullback.


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